SPORTS ADVISORS
(10) Villanova (23-6, 14-11 ATS) at Notre Dame (16-12, 7-15 ATS)
Two Big East foes coming off Saturday losses square off in South Bend, Ind. when Villanova visits Notre Dame.
The Wildcats lost a tough home game to Georgetown on Saturday, falling 56-54 as 6½-point favorites, snapping a three-game SU winning streak and dropping to just 1-4 ATS in their last five overall. Villanova shot just 15-of-45 from the field as the Wildcats were held to their lowest point total of the season.
Notre Dame went to No. 2 Connecticut on Saturday and fought hard but fell 72-65, cashing as a 11½-point pup. The Irish have followed a seven-game winning streak by going 4-2 in their last six, but despite Saturday’s spread-cover against the Huskies, they’re just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall (3-10 ATS in Big East action).
Notre Dame is considered “on the bubble” for making the NCAA Tournament and needs to win its final two Big East games to finish at .500 in conference play. It sits at 7-9 SU and 5-11 ATS in conference, including 5-2 at home (3-4 ATS). Villanova is 11-5 in league play (9-7 ATS), including 5-3 on the highway (4-4 ATS).
This is the first meeting between these two this season but Notre Dame has taken the last two clashes, including a 90-80 win in Philadelphia as a 2½-point underdog last year. The Irish are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Wildcats and they’ve covered each of the last three played in South Bend.
In addition to its ongoing 1-4 ATS slump (all in the Big East), Villanova is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games after a straight-up loss, but the ‘Cats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against teams with a winning record. The Irish have been a disaster at the betting window, currently on negative ATS streaks of 3-11 overall, 8-21 after a spread-cover, 3-10 against Big East foes, 1-6-1 on Mondays, 0-5 as a favorite and 3-9 against teams with a winning record.
The Wildcats have stayed below the total in 21 of 30 as an underdog and 15 of 22 coming off a non-cover, but they are otherwise on “over” streaks of 7-1 on the road, 4-0 after a straight-up loss and 7-0 against teams with a winning home record. Notre Dame is riding “under” runs of 10-3 as a favorite, 4-1 at home, 4-1 against Big East rivals, 7-1 as a home favorite and 6-1 against teams with a winning road record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Baylor (17-11, 7-13 ATS) at (25) Texas (19-9, 10-15 ATS)
The struggling Bears make the trek to Austin, Texas tonight for a Big 12 showdown with Texas, a team Baylor hasn’t beaten in 23 straight tries.
Baylor managed to score a 75-57 home win over Colorado on Saturday and cashed as a 14½-point chalk, ending an 0-9 ATS slump. The Bears, who were once ranked in the Top 25, are just 2-8 SU in their last 10 overall, including five straight losses and non-covers on the road.
Texas dropped a 68-59 decision at Oklahoma State on Saturday and failed as a one-point underdog, dropping to 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games. The Longhorns have won three straight at home (2-1 ATS).
The Longhorns are barely keeping their heads above water in conference play at 8-6 SU and 4-10 ATS, including 5-2 in Austin (2-5 ATS). Meanwhile, Baylor is 5-9 SU and 3-11 ATS in Big 12 action, including 1-6 SU and ATS as a visitor.
Texas went to Baylor back on Jan. 27 and got a 78-72 victory, cashing as 1½-point pups. The Longhorns have covered each of the last three against the Bears, and last time these two met in Austin Texas prevailed 80-72 as seven-point favorites.
Baylor is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games following a spread-cover and 5-1 ATS in its last six on Mondays, but otherwise the pointspread trends are all negative for the Bears, including 0-5 on the road, 1-9 in Big 12 games, 1-4 after a straight-up win and 0-7 against teams with a winning record. Texas is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 Monday games but just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 at home in addition to its ongoing 4-11 ATS slide overall.
For the Bears, the under is 6-0-1 in their last seven overall, but the over is on streaks of 14-5-1 as a visitor, 14-4-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 15-6 following a straight-up win. The Longhorns have stayed below the total in 10 of 13 on Mondays, 15 of 22 at home against teams with a losing road record and four of five after a straight-up loss. However, the over is 5-2 in the last seven in this rivalry, including 3-0 in the last three..
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
NBA
New Orleans (36-22, 23-33-2 ATS) at Philadelphia (29-29, 27-29-2 ATS)
The Hornets will try to make if five straight wins overall and four straight against the Sixers when they visit the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia.
New Orleans made ran its winning streak to four in a row with Sunday’s 99-96 victory at the Nets, but failed to cover as a 4½-point chalk. Despite their winning ways, the Hornets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games – 0-4 ATS as a favorite – and they’ve failed to cash in eight of their last 10 overall.
Philadelphia lost at home to the Magic 106-100 on Saturday, coming up short as a 1½-point pup. The Sixers are just 2-5 SU in their last seven overall and 2-6 ATS in their last eight. They’ve also dropped two in a row at home following a four-game home winning streak. In fact, Philly has been mediocre at the Wachovia Center this season, going 17-13 SU (10-19-1 ATS).
New Orleans won the first matchup with the Sixers this season, cruising 101-86 as a three-point home favorite. The Hornets are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three and 6-4 (7-3 ATS) in their last 10 against Philly. Also in this rivalry, the home team is riding a 6-2 ATS streak.
The Hornets are 13-7-1 ATS in their last 21 against the Atlantic Division, but otherwise they are on a plethora of negative ATS trends, including 6-20 as a road ‘dog, 1-7 on the road, 1-5 on Mondays, 2-5 on the second night of a back-to-back and 7-16-1 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Philadelphia is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 against the Southwest Division and 5-2-2 ATS in its last nine after getting one day off, but the Sixers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six on Mondays and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
New Orleans has topped the total in 10 of 14 road games, but otherwise the team is on under runs of 14-7-1 against the Eastern Conference and 9-3-1 on Mondays. The Sixers are on “under” streaks of 7-3-1 overall, 36-17-1 at home, 39-16-1 as a home favorite, 23-7-1 on Mondays, 6-0 against Western Conference teams and 8-3 after getting a day off. Lastly, the last four meetings in this series have stayed below the total, and the under is 4-1 in the last five in Philly.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Cleveland (46-12, 38-20 ATS) at Miami (31-27, 26-30-2 ATS)
The Cavaliers conclude a four-game road trip tonight with a stop in South Beach to take on the Heat.
Cleveland has won seven of eight overall (6-2 ATS) and is 2-1 (1-2 ATS) on this road swing. That includes Sunday’s 88-87 win in Atlanta, but the Cavs failed to cash as four-point favorites. They are 20-11 (17-14 ATS) on the road this season, going 4-1 in their last five as a visitor (3-2 ATS).
Miami has alternated wins and losses over its last 10 contests, including a 120-115 home win over New York on Saturday, coming up just short as a 6½-point chalk. Dwyane Wade led the fourth-quarter surge against the Knicks and finished with 46 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds. The Heat are 20-10 at home but have struggled against the number at 13-16-1 ATS.
These teams have split two games this season with the host winning each contest, but the Heat taking the cash in both. Cleveland has won four of the last five in this rivalry, but Miami is 2-4 ATS in the last six. Finally, the underdog has gotten the cash in five of the last seven series battles.
The Cavs are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight against the Southeast Division, but otherwise they are on ATS runs of 43-20 overall, 19-10 against teams with a winning record, 36-16 as a favorite, 20-8 on Mondays and 5-1 when playing the second night of a back-to-back. Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight against Central Division squads and 9-2 in its last 11 when playing after one day off, but otherwise the Heat are on ATS slides of 3-7 overall, 2-6 on Mondays, 5-13 at home against teams with a winning road mark, 1-4 as a ‘dog and 1-4 as a home pup.
Cleveland is on “under” runs of 6-1 on Mondays, 9-2 against Eastern Conference teams and 10-4 against teams with a winning record. Miami has stayed under the total in 13 of 19 as a home ‘dog and four of five as a pup anywhere, but it is on “over” runs of 4-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home and 5-1 against Central Division teams. In this rivalry, the under is 12-5 in the last 17 overall and 10-3 in the last 13 in South Beach.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVLEAND and UNDER
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